The Chartered Accountant Journal • Capital Market • January 2021

A Study on the Impact of Covid-19 Lockdown on Share Price

CA. Sk. Shakeel & Dr. Sukamal Datta
CA. Sk. Shakeel is a Member of the Institute. Dr. Sukamal Datta is Principal, Naba Ballygunge Mahavidyalaya, University of Calcutta.
Citation: (2021) 69 CAJ 855–871
Pages 79–95 • Journal Page Nos. 855–871

Executive Perspective

This paper attempts to analyze the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share prices and also to know the percentage variations in share prices of ten selected companies from five different sectors, i.e., banking sector, steel sector, Oil sector, Insurance sector and Pharmaceutical sector. It covers daily price data of the selected companies for 28 days period, i.e., 14 days before the announcement of lockdown and 14 days after the date of lockdown announcement. For this purpose we are conducting t-test-statistics for null hypothesis. We specify a 95% confidence interval, or a 0.05 level of significance for each test-statistic. The study found significant evidence of impact on share price of companies in Banking and Insurance sector due to lockdown while no significant impact on share price of companies in Insurance sector and Pharmaceutical sector. Oil sector has witnessed mixed results. Read on…

1. Introduction, Research Objectives & Hypotheses

In the present scenario when the whole world is struggling against COVID-19, a nationwide lockdown was announced from 24th March’2020 by our Prime Minister of India. COVID-19 lockdown degraded the Indian economy. The whole country is suffering from this damage and this has adversely affected the entire economy i.e., Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate, Consumer Price Inflation (CPI), Revenue Collection, Stock Markets, Employment rate etc. Our study mainly focuses on the impact on share price due to COVID-19 lockdown.

Research Objectives:

  1. To study the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price.
  2. To know the percentage variations that has occurred in Share price before and after the COVID-19 lockdown.

Statistical Hypotheses:

  • Null Hypothesis (H0): μ1 = μ2 (There is no significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price).
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H1): μ1 ≠ μ2 (There is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price).

2. Research Methodology & Census of Sample Companies

In this study analytical research is used, the available information or data are analyzed and critical evaluations are made. It is primarily concerned with testing of hypothesis and specifying and interpreting relationships. This method was selected due to accurate and availability of quantitative numerical data. The study has formulated a set of hypothesis that needs to be confirmed or rejected during the research process following a deductive approach.

This study uses 28 days data selected from March, 2020 to April, 2020 i.e., 14 days before COVID-19 lockdown and 14 days post COVID-19 lockdown. The study collected only secondary data from Moneycontrol. Statistical test like paired t – test, percentage are used in this study. We specify a 95% confidence interval, or a 0.05 level of significance (α = 0.025 for two-tailed test, df = 26, critical t-value = 2.16) for each test-statistic.

Population of the study: The study covers the census of ten organizations, two organizations from each of five sectors:

  • Banking Sector: State Bank of India (SBI) and ICICI Bank
  • Steel Sector: TATA Steel and JSW Steel Ltd
  • Oil Sector: Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
  • Pharmaceutical Sector: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd and Cipla Ltd
  • Insurance Sector: HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd and SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd

3. Sectoral Analysis: Banking Sector (SBI & ICICI Bank)

A. State Bank of India (SBI)

Table 1: Share price of SBI for 28 days Table 2: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (SBI)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1289.85189.95Mean (Pre / Post)238.26 / 187.83
2285.30192.85Variance (Pre / Post)1223.78 / 33.80
3288.30196.05Observations14
4270.45186.95Pearson Correlation0.455567
5253.70196.95Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6245.20186.60Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7212.75175.55t Stat5.763041
8242.25186.35P(T<=t) one-tail3.28E-05
9223.25182.90t Critical one-tail1.770933
10214.90187.70P(T<=t) two-tail6.57E-05
11214.65183.55t Critical two-tail2.160369
12203.85182.30ConclusionReject H0
13209.65188.60Percentage Change-33.13%
14181.60193.30Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact

Interpretation (SBI): The calculated t-test is 5.76. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 5.76 is bigger than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of SBI. The share price of SBI decreased due to COVID-19 lockdown from a mean value of ₹ 238.26 to ₹ 187.82 (-33.13%).

B. ICICI Bank

Table 3: Share price of ICICI Bank for 28 days Table 4: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (ICICI Bank)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1516.45317.15Mean (Pre / Post)421.82 / 327.83
2508.50332.00Variance (Pre / Post)5436.44 / 406.92
3504.75340.10Observations14
4486.25314.00Pearson Correlation-0.520050
5457.15324.50Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6465.40311.45Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7425.00286.50t Stat4.090657
8447.45326.10P(T<=t) one-tail0.000638
9402.90319.00t Critical one-tail1.770933
10366.85342.65P(T<=t) two-tail0.001275
11356.00330.85t Critical two-tail2.160369
12339.15327.30ConclusionReject H0
13345.70342.10Percentage Change-27.20%
14283.90375.95Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact

Interpretation (ICICI Bank): The calculated t-test is 4.09. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 4.09 is bigger than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of ICICI bank. The share price of ICICI bank decreased from a mean value of ₹ 421.81 to ₹ 327.83 (-27.20%).

4. Sectoral Analysis: Steel Sector (TATA Steel & JSW Steel Ltd)

A. TATA Steel

Table 5: Share price of Tata Steel for 28 days Table 6: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (TATA Steel)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1387.60285.65Mean (Pre / Post)315.67 / 277.01
2377.00285.75Variance (Pre / Post)1710.70 / 149.01
3375.65277.35Observations14
4351.20254.15Pearson Correlation-0.080195
5322.30269.75Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6299.40266.45Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7286.80253.85t Stat3.283331
8325.45276.15P(T<=t) one-tail0.002968
9289.60274.70t Critical one-tail1.770933
10282.30284.80P(T<=t) two-tail0.005935
11280.90282.50t Critical two-tail2.160369
12271.95285.15ConclusionReject H0
13298.05288.60Percentage Change-24.33%
14271.15293.30Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact

Interpretation (TATA Steel): The calculated t-test is 3.28. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 3.28 is bigger than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of TATA steel. The share price of TATA steel decreased from a mean value of ₹ 315.66 to ₹ 277.01 (-24.33%).

B. JSW Steel Ltd

Table 7: Share price of JSW Steel ltd for 28 days Table 8: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (JSW Steel Ltd)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1245.60150.90Mean (Pre / Post)204.06 / 156.44
2245.35149.70Variance (Pre / Post)1258.56 / 149.49
3247.05151.45Observations14
4238.85142.30Pearson Correlation-0.820977
5229.00146.45Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6223.50142.95Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7203.05140.00t Stat3.869376
8214.85158.25P(T<=t) one-tail0.000968
9185.80154.65t Critical one-tail1.770933
10176.45166.40P(T<=t) two-tail0.001935
11163.85167.70t Critical two-tail2.160369
12162.65171.15ConclusionReject H0
13176.45171.30Percentage Change-27.95%
14144.35176.95Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact

Interpretation (JSW Steel Ltd): The calculated t-test is 3.86. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 3.86 is bigger than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of JSW Steel ltd. The share price of JSW Steel ltd decreased from a mean value of ₹ 204.05 to ₹ 156.43 (-27.95%).

5. Sectoral Analysis: Oil Sector (IOC & ONGC)

A. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC)

Table 9: Share price of IOC for 28 days Table 10: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (IOC)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1106.7077.95Mean (Pre / Post)94.44 / 81.07
2106.6578.05Variance (Pre / Post)66.09 / 9.23
3104.8576.95Observations14
4100.8076.55Pearson Correlation-0.829347
599.4581.65Hypothesized Mean Diff0
697.0579.00Degrees of Freedom (df)26
787.7579.45t Stat4.638358
892.2083.00P(T<=t) one-tail0.000232
989.7581.85t Critical one-tail1.770933
1089.4583.40P(T<=t) two-tail0.000464
1188.0583.15t Critical two-tail2.160369
1287.9583.20ConclusionReject H0
1390.6084.75Percentage Change-19.40%
1480.8586.00Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact

Interpretation (IOC): The calculated t-test is 4.63. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 4.63 is bigger than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of IOC. The share price of IOC decreased from a mean value of ₹ 94.43 to ₹ 81.06 (-19.40%).

B. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)

Table 11: Share price of ONGC for 28 days Table 12: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (ONGC)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
193.3061.50Mean (Pre / Post)73.05 / 70.28
292.8564.80Variance (Pre / Post)176.32 / 30.10
392.5064.30Observations14
489.1563.45Pearson Correlation-0.875121
574.6568.30Hypothesized Mean Diff0
671.6565.75Degrees of Freedom (df)26
762.6069.85t Stat0.568204
865.9073.05P(T<=t) one-tail0.289790
960.1574.25t Critical one-tail1.770933
1060.0577.30P(T<=t) two-tail0.579579
1165.9575.05t Critical two-tail2.160369
1261.1074.35ConclusionAccept H0
1372.4575.65Percentage Change-18.22%
1460.4576.30Statistical SignificanceNo Significant Impact

Interpretation (ONGC): The calculated t-test is 0.56. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 0.56 is lower than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can accept the null hypothesis and reject the Alternative hypothesis that there is no significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of ONGC.

6. Sectoral Analysis: Pharmaceutical Sector (Sun Pharma & Cipla Ltd)

A. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd

Table 13: Share price of Sun Pharma for 28 days Table 14: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (Sun Pharma)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1393.35347.05Mean (Pre / Post)376.94 / 397.87
2405.70338.55Variance (Pre / Post)532.95 / 3006.86
3404.85338.15Observations14
4400.90333.65Pearson Correlation-0.776546
5394.95352.20Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6386.30343.55Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7354.85375.90t Stat-1.055155
8384.45417.10P(T<=t) one-tail0.155285
9368.80436.65t Critical one-tail1.770933
10370.55455.20P(T<=t) two-tail0.310570
11362.50462.10t Critical two-tail2.160369
12360.20448.95ConclusionAccept H0
13365.80464.10Percentage Change+16.18%
14324.00457.00Statistical SignificanceNo Significant Impact

Interpretation (Sun Pharma): The calculated t-test is -1.05. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of -1.05 is lower than the rejection point of 2.16 (i.e., within range from 2.16 to -2.16); therefore we can accept the null hypothesis and reject the Alternative hypothesis that there is no significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (+16.18%).

B. Cipla Ltd

Table 15: Share price of Cipla Ltd for 28 days Table 16: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (Cipla Ltd)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1425.70376.70Mean (Pre / Post)410.11 / 489.85
2447.70386.65Variance (Pre / Post)561.20 / 7618.52
3440.45408.45Observations14
4433.95432.10Pearson Correlation-0.852083
5425.55423.00Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6417.55413.55Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7394.85449.10t Stat-2.757780
8425.20491.95P(T<=t) one-tail0.008147
9396.40513.00t Critical one-tail1.770933
10401.75579.50P(T<=t) two-tail0.016294
11386.70592.70t Critical two-tail2.160369
12374.60592.55ConclusionReject H0
13393.60600.55Percentage Change+40.49%
14377.60598.10Statistical SignificanceSignificant Impact (Surge)

Interpretation (Cipla Ltd): The calculated t-test is -2.75. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of -2.75 is greater than the rejection point of -2.16 (two-tailed); therefore we can reject the null hypothesis and accept the Alternative hypothesis that there is significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of Cipla Ltd. The share price of Cipla Ltd increased due to COVID-19 lockdown from a mean value of ₹ 410.11 to ₹ 489.85 (+40.49%).

7. Sectoral Analysis: Insurance Sector (HDFC Life & SBI Life)

A. HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd

Table 17: Share price of HDFC Life for 28 days Table 18: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (HDFC Life)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1562.90433.75Mean (Pre / Post)485.30 / 457.69
2568.55477.30Variance (Pre / Post)4645.18 / 717.56
3564.40440.85Observations14
4548.00411.60Pearson Correlation-0.636252
5517.50441.60Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6513.80429.65Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7472.45422.25t Stat1.178248
8511.90470.35P(T<=t) one-tail0.129908
9473.95476.15t Critical one-tail1.770933
10463.90471.35P(T<=t) two-tail0.259816
11419.10477.30t Critical two-tail2.160369
12416.00470.70ConclusionAccept H0
13419.15490.10Percentage Change-12.11%
14342.55494.70Statistical SignificanceNo Significant Impact

Interpretation (HDFC Life): The calculated t-test is 1.17. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 1.17 is lower than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can accept the null hypothesis and reject the Alternative hypothesis that there is no significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd (-12.11%).

B. SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd

Table 19: Share price of SBI Life for 28 days Table 20: t-Test Paired Two Sample for Means (SBI Life)
Day Pre-Lockdown (₹) Post-Lockdown (₹) Metric Value
1899.35586.60Mean (Pre / Post)747.06 / 669.69
2885.65618.20Variance (Pre / Post)14329.3 / 2819.8
3886.25605.60Observations14
4855.85623.15Pearson Correlation-0.752300
5821.15640.95Hypothesized Mean Diff0
6810.50635.40Degrees of Freedom (df)26
7753.75650.50t Stat1.771250
8761.55735.80P(T<=t) one-tail0.049970
9719.40743.20t Critical one-tail1.770930
10687.80739.80P(T<=t) two-tail0.099950
11596.00708.15t Critical two-tail2.160370
12609.35701.10ConclusionAccept H0
13636.45684.75Percentage Change-21.88%
14535.85702.50Statistical SignificanceNo Significant Impact

Interpretation (SBI Life): The calculated t-test is 1.77. The critical value for a 0.025 significance level (two-tailed test) with 26 degrees of freedom is 2.16. Our calculated test statistic of 1.77 is lower than the rejection point of 2.16; therefore we can accept the null hypothesis and reject the Alternative hypothesis that there is no significant impact of COVID-19 lockdown on share price of SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd (-21.88%).

8. Summary of Findings Across Ten Companies

From the empirical study the consolidated observations and hypothesis test outcomes are tabulated below:

Sector Company Change in Share Price Impact on Share Price t-test Decision
Banking Sector SBI -33.13% Decrease Reject the null hypothesis
ICICI Bank -27.20% Decrease Reject the null hypothesis
Steel Sector TATA Steel -24.33% Decrease Reject the null hypothesis
JSW Steel Ltd -27.95% Decrease Reject the null hypothesis
Oil Sector Indian Oil Corporation -19.40% Decrease Reject the null hypothesis
ONGC -18.22% Decrease Accept the null hypothesis
Pharmaceutical Sector Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd +16.18% Increase Accept the null hypothesis
Cipla Ltd +40.49% Increase Reject the null hypothesis
Insurance Sector HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd. -12.11% Decrease Accept the null hypothesis
SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd -21.88% Decrease Accept the null hypothesis

9. Conclusion & The Role of Chartered Accountants

In this study we mainly focus on the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on Share price of selected ten organizations from five sectors, i.e., Banking Sector, Steel Sector, Oil Sector, Pharmaceutical sector and Insurance sector and it is seen that there is a significant impact on share price of companies in banking sector and steel sector, while Oil sector has mixed results IOC has seen a significant impact on share price due to lockdown but ONGC has witnessed no significant impact on share price. It is also observed that there is no significant impact on share price of companies in Pharmaceutical sector and Insurance sector. It is seen that Cipla Ltd has a positive impact with a price change of +40.49%.

Role of Chartered Accountants:

A CA can:

  • Act as a consultant for providing services relating to share price and future growth of the company thereby providing advisory function to the investors.
  • Act as a financial risk manager.
  • Provide key services to the Organizations relating to Investments and explore new opportunities.

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